Stakeholder oriented optimization of a Flood Warning System

About this report: 

This report is part of the Project “Development and Implementation of EWS-Beni”. The project aims to minimize the adverse effects of floods in the region of Beni through the development and implementation of an Early Warning System based on modelling and hydrologic simulation, and by transferring these technologies to the appropriate Bolivian institutions. The specific objective of this MSc Thesis is to provide specifications for improvements to the existing flood Early Warning System, based on the interests and needs of the stakeholders involved, as identified by themselves, and that are feasible with the available technology. Monitoring and forecasting acquire significant relevance within the new Early Warning System that will be developed and implemented in the region of Beni. However, the development of the new flood Early Warning System also considers warning dissemination and communication, as well as emergency preparation and response, to be relevant.

The research was carried out using data collected during interviews with experts and inhabitants who have experience of floods in the region. A review of literature on the topic was made, and discussions with Deltares staff were held to analyze the existing flood Early Warning System. Field research shows a variety of optimal lead times at which forecasts are required. Stakeholders’ different needs will impact the design of the future warning system. Those considered relevant to the analysis include: disaster management agencies, national and local governments, businesses, inhabitants local to the area studied, and disadvantaged minorities.

Whilst studying the existing system, important gaps in the monitoring network were identified in terms of O&M, personnel, equipment and coordination. The warning information dissemination network includes several organizations and various communication technologies used to warn, such as radio, TV, mobile and conventional phones, and door knocking. However, given the large number of people who do not receive any warning information, the use of loudhailers and sirens should be encouraged. Results of the research confirm that the effectiveness of warning messages depends on many factors, including their accuracy, reliability and credibility, whether they reach the right target recipients and whether they are timely. In addition, the individual or agency that disseminates the warning has a tremendous impact on the success of the message. In terms of flood responses, saving family members, household goods and livestock are the main activities carried out by ranchers and citizens. Farmers, however, frequently do not take any preventative action to save their crops. Risk awareness, which includes the visibility of floods and prior experience, has been identified as the main factor influencing the type of flood response taken and people’s perceptions of imminent danger.

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